Research

Older drivers and wrong-way risk

Nino Mihilli· ·3 min read

Research on fatal wrong-way crashes consistently identifies older drivers as an elevated-risk group. The AAA Foundation's analysis of crashes from 2014 through 2023 lists them alongside alcohol-impaired drivers, unlicensed drivers, and drivers of older vehicles.

This finding gets handled badly in public conversation, usually collapsing into an argument about whether older people should drive. That framing is neither accurate nor useful, so it is worth being careful.

What the finding does and does not mean

It does not mean older drivers are generally unsafe. Older drivers as a group tend to drive fewer miles, at lower speeds, in better conditions, and with lower rates of many risky behaviors. On several measures they are among the safest drivers on the road.

The overrepresentation is in this specific crash type, which involves a specific set of demands: reading complex signage quickly, in low light, often on an unfamiliar road, and detecting an error fast enough to correct it.

Those demands map onto changes that are a normal part of aging.

Why this particular error

Night vision changes. The eye's ability to gather light and recover from glare declines with age. An interchange at night involves both — dim signage and oncoming headlights.

Contrast sensitivity. Distinguishing a sign from its background in low light becomes harder. Signage designed against typical vision performs less well.

Processing speed under complexity. Interchanges demand rapid interpretation of several inputs simultaneously. Reaction and processing speed decline gradually, and the margin is thinnest exactly where the scene is most complex.

Medication effects. Many common prescriptions affect alertness, vision, or reaction time, and interactions between them are frequently underappreciated by the person taking them.

None of these is a character judgment. They are physiological, gradual, and well documented.

What actually helps

Ramp engineering helps everyone, and helps here specifically. Larger, lower, illuminated signage and red retroreflective markers are designed for degraded visual processing. They were largely developed with impaired drivers in mind, and they serve a driver with reduced contrast sensitivity equally well. This is the great advantage of engineering solutions: they require nothing of the driver.

Route familiarity. Wrong-way risk is elevated for drivers far from home. Staying on known routes when possible, and planning unfamiliar trips for daylight, meaningfully reduces exposure.

Daylight when practical. The overlap between reduced night vision and a crash type concentrated at night is the clearest single risk reduction available.

A vision check and a medication review. Both are ordinary, both are underused, and both address real contributors. A conversation with a physician about which prescriptions affect driving is a straightforward thing to ask for.

Talking about it well

Family members raise this badly more often than not, and it goes poorly for predictable reasons. Driving is not only transportation — it is independence, and a conversation that sounds like it is about taking that away will be resisted regardless of the evidence.

A few things that tend to work better:

Be specific rather than general. "I have noticed a couple of close calls at night" invites a real conversation. "You are getting too old to drive" ends one.

Address the scenario, not the license. Suggesting fewer night trips or avoiding a particular complicated interchange is a modest ask. Suggesting someone stop driving is an enormous one, and starting there means never getting to the modest version.

Solve the transportation problem first. Resistance is often about losing the ability to get places, not about driving itself. Arriving with an actual alternative changes the conversation entirely.

Involve a physician. A recommendation from a doctor about vision or medication lands differently than the same point from an adult child, and it is frequently more accurate.

The framing we prefer

The goal is not fewer older drivers. It is fewer wrong-way entries, by any driver, under any condition.

Almost everything that reduces risk for an older driver at a badly designed interchange also reduces it for an impaired driver, a tired driver, or a visitor who has never seen that road before. Building road infrastructure that does not require perfect vision, perfect attention, and local knowledge serves everyone — and it does not require anyone to give anything up.


Sources: AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, Fatal Wrong-Way Crashes on Divided Highways, United States, 2014–2023

ResearchOlder DriversPrevention
NM
Nino Mihilli

Founder of NMWWD, a Phoenix road-safety nonprofit working to prevent wrong-way driving through technology, awareness, and community. www.ninomihilli.com

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